the end of 2022. However,
executives interviewed for this
article uniformly expressed
surprising optimism regarding
the future growth of the
electronics and electronics
components industry. The
optimism for managing the
future demand cycle stems
both from the growing
diversity of the markets as
well as the visibility and tools
that have been developed
to understand and manage
declining demand.
Badhorn provided a summary
that captures the overall
sentiment of executives.
“Today, electronics are in more
applications than ever before.
One cannot predict the future,
but since there are so many
more use cases for electronics, I
hope that any downturn would
be more contained than in the
past. Plus, we have employed
more tools than ever before to
enable us to gain more visibility
into upstream and downstream
supply chains. Not only can
we analyze historical usage (in
addition to current trends),
but partnerships between
customers and distributors
have strengthened.”
Elaborating on the benets of
a more diverse market as well
is technological innovation,
Flynn shared his vision of the
future. “As an industry, we are
always waiting for the other
shoe to fall. The dot com boom
followed by the bust in the
2000s cemented this psyche
which was reinforced later
in the ‘08 and ‘09 time frame
and even to some degree in
2018. We are just used to it
now, which is why there is
always concern as demand
falls and production ramps.
What is different this time
is we do not have signs of
demand falling. The demand
for new technologies is lling
the gap. New markets, new
infrastructure, and growth
in 5G, IoT, EV and other
green initiatives are creating
opportunities. As with the
beginning of the Internet in
the 1995-2000 timeframe, the
industry is poised to be strong
for the next ten years. There is
too much technology to ll the
void caused by a traditionally
cyclical event thus sidestepping
a signicant collapse. Now,
when one thing is down other
things are up. This plays well
for us. There are more selling
opportunities. ‘Vectors of
Growth’ that are strong. More
diversity will lead to a more
stable outcome over time.”
Ricciardelli believes that
“while there probably is
double booking, the demand
is strong enough to consume
the product. There does not
appear to be large inventories
building and not being
consumed. The demand
is so strong from so many
different industries. At the
moment a lot of product
is on order. However, the
impression from customers is
that they are using product
as fast as it is coming in and
not stockpiling it. I do not
see demand changing that
much. Sure, there is double
booking. Even with that
the customers are using it
up. When demand slows it
will not be like it has been.
A slowdown in consumer
demand will just give supply
a chance to catch up.”
Beeson is optimistic as he
thinks about “the need and
spirit around innovation.
The things that drive us
forward are not standing
still. We are changing tires
while going 60 mph. There
is unsatised demand sitting
on the sidelines today. In
addition, there is a lot of
capital sitting on the sideline
today just waiting to manage
through this time. The
industry is going to get larger
and broader in scope.”
Wadsworth is a bit more
cautious in his observations.
“Customer demand has
doubled and even tripled,
driven by lead times and
overall growth in demand.
Book to bills have been
well over 1.2 for many
consecutive months. It is very
difcult to understand the
bubble that is forming. The
manufacturers are slowly
adding capacity. I do expect
a correction but feel that it
will be softened by a slow
decrease in lead times where
distributors and customers
can adjust their new orders
to soften the blow.”
“Just-in-Time” to
“Just-in-Case”?
With a shift in inventory
management toward “Just-
in-Case” from “Just-in-Time”
how will this affect purchasing
patterns moving forward?
Executives expressed a
range of opinions on how
inventory management
strategies will evolve. Beeson
is representative of the more
conservative view on the
prospects for change. “If
behavior predicts behavior,
we won’t be able to change.
We will go back. I would put
it on your risk mitigation
chart. It is always moving. The
answer today will be different
to the answer two years from
now. The pendulum is always
swinging. You try to assess
and predict. If you take the
top 50 distributors and ask
them their forecast for 2021
vs. results, I don’t know how
many would be +/- 5%. It’s
not lack of understanding
but rather the challenge of
managing through. Even
for RS a long-term planning
horizon of 5 years is now
reduced to looking at a
half year or 90 days.”
By contrast, Badhorn states
that, “We are already seeing
suppliers expand capacity
and move towards larger
inventories and more “just
in case” strategies to meet
demand. But someone
will need to manage that
additional inventory and
continue to mitigate ongoing
logistics considerations. We
think that supply chain agility
will become more about
positioning and managing
inventory. Our ability to
look across customers and
geographies is a big part of
the value that we add for the
component manufacturers
that we serve as well. We
can bring them a clear view
of global demand for their
products – which in the end,
will be critical to determining
how supply chain strategies
evolve moving forward.”
Yasmine sees the experience
of the past two years
“driving many people to the
distribution network as they
see the benet of managing
demand on their behalf
and taking risks with them.
There are important benets
from inventory management
programs with distributors.
Smaller companies cannot
afford to go through a cycle
like this again. Automotive too.
Will they all learn or revert?
Extended lead times could
become the normal in the
industry for some technologies.
Everybody assumes everything
goes back to the way it was
but that may not be the case in
the future. Distributors provide
valuable support as companies
change their inventory
management and risk proles.”
Highlighting the importance of
partnering with distributors,
Wadsworth “see(s) end
David Loftus,
ECIA CEO
38 May 2022 | Top 50 Authorized Distributor Report 2022 Americas Edition • www.electronics-sourcing.com
Top 50 Americas Authorized Distributors Report 2022