December 2017
Happy New Year! We would like to wish you and your family all of the very best for 2018.
2017 was another good year for our managed portfolios! We are pleased to report that all
of our mandates outperformed the S&P/TSX Composite Index, which generated 6.03%
last year. We remain pleased with how the portfolios are positioned for the New Year.
Real GDP accelerated in most countries in 2017 resulting in strong, synchronized global
growth. We believe that there will be more divergence in growth during 2018, with some
countries slowing while others accelerate or maintain a steady level of growth. On
balance, areas of weakness should be offset by strength elsewhere allowing global
growth to be sustained near 2017 levels. Equity markets should do well in 2018, but the
combination of weaker growth in some regions, high valuations, and ongoing Fed
tightening should lead to a return of volatility in the equity markets from the unusually low
volatility experienced in 2017. We expect one or two significant equity market corrections
in 2018 which would be more normal than the 2017 experience.
The prospect of sustained good growth in the United States prevents the 2018 Developing
Markets (DM) slowdown from being more pronounced, and erases our previous concerns
about aggregate global growth prospects in 2018. Rebuilding and replacement demand
after the hurricanes led to a surge of business sales growth that shrank inventory levels
that had been building. The rebuilding stimulus won't likely be sustained, but the U.S.
business sector begins 2018 with much leaner inventories than had been the case prior to
the hurricanes. The economy therefore benefits from the need to replenish inventories at
the same time that new fiscal stimulus is being applied, offset by escalating monetary
restraint and the fading stimulus of hurricane rebuilding. On a fourth quarter, year over
year basis, Fed officials expect U.S. growth of 2.5% in 2018, matching the 2.5% growth in
2017. The consensus, still being upwardly revised to account for tax reform legislation,
has similar 2018 expectations of 2.4% U.S. real growth over the four quarters of 2018.
Quarterly Market Commentary
2
Emerging market (EM) economies are expected to sustain a high level of growth in 2018,
as a modest slowing in China is offset by accelerating growth elsewhere, notably India,
Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico. On balance, we calculate a consensus expectation of
5.25% real GDP growth in 2018, essentially unchanged from the 5.31% growth recorded
in 2017.
We expect global growth in 2018 will continue very near the high level of growth recorded
in 2017. While annual measures of global growth will likely budge, monthly and quarterly
measures of global growth such as industrial production, the PMIs and quarterly real GDP
should weaken in a growing number of countries in the second half of 2018, while
remaining at aggregate levels that should still be considered good growth. Slower growth
in some regions of the world, combined with high valuations and continued Fed tightening
should lead to a return of equity market volatility. The bull market is intact so we expect to
continue to recommend investors 'buy the dip' when corrections occur.
Some of the names that we continue to hold and favour for 2018 include:
ENERCARE INC.
In its core Home Services portfolio, Enercare continues to deliver improved aggregation
trends concurrent with pricing/mix improvement and we believe that the company is well-
positioned to take advantage of a convergence of home services. Meanwhile, Service
Experts continues to exceed our expectations, while the sub-metering business continues
to have a strong pipeline of embedded growth. WE believe that the embedded growth in
sub-metering and the roll-out of rentals at Service Experts could result in a combined
~$2.00-$3.00 per share of additional value. Additionally, Enercare pays an attractive
4.9% dividend yield and we believe that the company's current valuation offers investors a
good entry point into the name.
We believe that Enercare is an attractive long-term holding, as it is a well-run company
with good growth opportunities and a portfolio of rental assets that have a history of
generating stable and recurring cash flows supportive of the attractive dividend.
CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY
CN characterized Q4/17 as somewhat challenging. We believe that three issues were at
play: 1) volume growth is slowing as CN laps more difficult prior year comparables (similar
to its peers); 2) the company entered Q4/17 with some capacity challenges as a result of
YTD volume growth that has well surpassed initial expectations; and 3) winter weather
conditions have arrived early in western Canada. Beyond these temporary resource
issues, we see higher-than-expected volume growth as a "high-quality problem", and we
would argue that CN has higher visibility to 2018/2019 volume growth vs. its Class I peers,
based on: 1) the diversity of CN's franchise; 2) the company's low exposure to coal (~4%
of revenue); and 3) the ~$1.1bln-$2.2bln revenue growth pipeline (2018-2020) that CN
presented at its June 2017 investor meeting.
We view CN as a relatively low-risk, high-quality industrial company, which should be a
core holding.
Quarterly Market Commentary
3
BCE INC.
For investors who covet stability, predictability, and yield, BCE delivered on plan yet again
in Q3. Subsequent to consensus expectations coming down a bit pre-quarter, BCE
delivered slight beats on most financial and subscriber metrics in Q3.
NEW FLYER INDUSTRIES
New Flyer is generating strong free-cash-flow currently, with its capital-light business
model, and we expect this to continue in the near term, given a strong industry outlook,
record backlog, and continued opportunities for cost-rationalization. Furthermore, New
Flyer has a demonstrated track-record of creating value through disciplined mergers and
acquisitions, and we expect this to continue being a part of the story going forward.
CIBC
Our positive outlook on CIBC reflects relative valuation and performance. We also favor
CIBC's recent approach to building franchises rather than building silos and entering into
creative financing transactions. CIBC is trading at an 11% discount to the group on
2018E EPS, versus an average discount of 9% over the past five years. We believe that
the market has more than priced in: a) concerns surrounding CIBC's mortgage growth; b)
the capital hit associated with the PrivateBancorp deal; and c) earnings dilution
associated with PrivateBancorp.
TELUS CORP.
Telus increased the dividend by 2.54% this quarter. We are now using a five-year
discounted cash flow model to value the wireline segment. We have gained greater
confidence in the company's ability to both increase EBITDA margins and lower capex
over the next 3-5 years, owing to industry-leading investments in FTTH networks and
services.
MAGNA INTERNATIONAL
Despite the cautionary outlook on Getrag this quarter, we do not believe the impact
should be material to offset Magna from growing in excess of the industry over our
investment horizon. Additionally, we view Magna as well-positioned to participate in the
car of the future, with a financial position of strength enabling the company to remain
active with its Normal Course Issuer Bid, potentially increase its dividend, and/or pursue
additional merger and acquisition opportunities.
EMERA
Emera increased the dividend by 8.13% this quarter. We believe that Emera's
investments in: 1) transmission; 2) reducing the carbon intensity of its portfolio; 3) gas
generation and transportation; and 4) utilities will contribute to the company's ability to
grow earnings per share and dividends by high single digits through to 2020. When
coupled with a relatively low-risk business model and attractive dividend yield, we expect
Emera to be appealing to investors looking for income and growth.
Quarterly Market Commentary
4
ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES CORP.
We believe that Algonquin offers a compelling valuation in the context of an extensive
growth pipeline that includes development activity, potential acquisitions, utility rate-base
investments, and potential international investments via Atlantica Yield and the AAGES
joint venture. Management has built a strong merger and acquisition track record through
the growth of its unregulated and regulated businesses. Given the company's diverse
investment opportunities, conservative payout ratio, and manageable leverage, we view
management's 10% annual dividend growth target as realistic.
CANADIAN TIRE
Canadian Tire increased the dividend by 38.5% this quarter and announced a Normal
Course Issuer Bid to repurchase $550 million of its shares through 2018.
Canadian Tire remains a preferred name within our coverage universe based upon our
investment thesis that the market continues to undervalue Canadian Tire's Retail
operations, that the strategy and initiatives in place in our view position the company for
earnings per share growth, and that the material active normal course issuer bid provides
a degree of downside protection to the share price.
PREMIUM BRANDS
Premium Brands was very active in the quarter. They announced the acquisition of
Buddy's Kitchen Inc., Raybern Foods, and a non-material 50% interest in Shaw Bakers for
$200 million. As a result, we are raising our 2018 and 2019 EBITDA estimates by 7-8% to
reflect the anticipated accretion.
Premium Brands is not finished yet, as management suggested that several transactions
are nearing closing within the next 3-6 months. Combined with strong organic growth,
contributions from previous acquisitions, and good management execution, we have little
hesitation in recommending investors buy Premium Brands shares, provided that it is in
line with their investment objectives and risk tolerance.
ALIMENTATION COUCHE TARD
In our opinion, consensus estimates still look too low. Despite the challenging industry
backdrop, we expect the CST and Holiday acquisitions, significant synergies, and modest
(yet ahead of peers) organic growth, to deliver >20% earnings per share compound
annual growth rate through fiscal 2020.
After moving sideways for much of the past 18 months, sentiment has turned more
favourable of-late as management meetings appear to be giving investors comfort with
respect to Couche- Tard's long-term growth potential (regardless of the expectation that
fuel demand will start declining 1-2% annually beyond 2025). With a forward Price-
Earnings ratio of only 16x and >20% earnings per share compound annual growth rate
through F2020, we still see meaningful upside to the shares.
TRANSCANADA
TransCanada has extended its 8 - 10% compound annual growth rate dividend outlook by
one year through to 2021. The company has also reiterated its forecast that the dividend
compound annual growth rate will be at the upper end of the range through 2020. The
dividend is supported by earnings and cash flow growth, as well as strong coverage ratios.
Quarterly Market Commentary
5
We believe that a positive final investment decision on Keystone would be a catalyst for
the stock. TransCanada has a strong incumbency in the two most prolific natural gas
basins in North America (the Marcellus/Utica and Montney), combined with access to
large markets, in our view. Growing connectivity over time should provide customers with
increasing optionality as it moves approximately a quarter of North American natural gas
demand. The company's 91,500 km of pipelines have increasing value as new pipelines
become more difficult to build, in our view. We believe that TransCanada's scale, energy
infrastructure expertise, low-risk business model, and financial strength are competitive
advantages when pursuing new assets.
TORONTO DOMINION BANK
We continue to favour the bank’s U.S. exposure and strong domestic personal and
commercial business. The advantages of the U.S. exposure relate to: a) the positive
effects of rising interest rates; b) slightly stronger forecast economic growth and continued
market share gains; and c) the moderating expense growth expected to play-out from the
restructuring initiatives in the U.S. In periods when personal & commercial business
(rather than capital markets) drives earnings growth, TD has historically outperformed its
peers.
If you should have any questions or comments, please do not hesitate to contact us.
The recommendations and opinions expressed herein are those of MK Total Wealth Management Group and do not necessarily reflect those of TD Wealth and
are not specifically endorsed by TD Wealth. The information contained herein has been provided by TD Wealt
h Private Investment Advice and is for information
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future performance of any investment. The information does not provide financial, legal, tax or investment advice. Particular
investment,
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should be evaluated relative to each individual’s objectives and risk tolerance. TD Wealth Private Investment Advice, The Tor
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MK Total Wealth Management Group consists
of Jeff MacDonald, Senior Vice President & Investment Advisor, Peter Konidis, Vice President & Investment Advisor, Daniela Porretta, Client Relationship
Associat
e, Stephanie Burgess, Client Service Associate and Tania Vera-Miloslavich, Client Service Associate. MK Total Wealth Management Group is part of
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