Quarterly Market Commentary
ALGONQUIN POWER & UTILITIES CORP.
We believe that Algonquin offers a compelling valuation in the context of an extensive
growth pipeline that includes development activity, potential acquisitions, utility rate-base
investments, and potential international investments via Atlantica Yield and the AAGES
joint venture. Management has built a strong merger and acquisition track record through
the growth of its unregulated and regulated businesses. Given the company's diverse
investment opportunities, conservative payout ratio, and manageable leverage, we view
management's 10% annual dividend growth target as realistic.
CANADIAN TIRE
Canadian Tire increased the dividend by 38.5% this quarter and announced a Normal
Course Issuer Bid to repurchase $550 million of its shares through 2018.
Canadian Tire remains a preferred name within our coverage universe based upon our
investment thesis that the market continues to undervalue Canadian Tire's Retail
operations, that the strategy and initiatives in place in our view position the company for
earnings per share growth, and that the material active normal course issuer bid provides
a degree of downside protection to the share price.
PREMIUM BRANDS
Premium Brands was very active in the quarter. They announced the acquisition of
Buddy's Kitchen Inc., Raybern Foods, and a non-material 50% interest in Shaw Bakers for
$200 million. As a result, we are raising our 2018 and 2019 EBITDA estimates by 7-8% to
reflect the anticipated accretion.
Premium Brands is not finished yet, as management suggested that several transactions
are nearing closing within the next 3-6 months. Combined with strong organic growth,
contributions from previous acquisitions, and good management execution, we have little
hesitation in recommending investors buy Premium Brands shares, provided that it is in
line with their investment objectives and risk tolerance.
ALIMENTATION COUCHE TARD
In our opinion, consensus estimates still look too low. Despite the challenging industry
backdrop, we expect the CST and Holiday acquisitions, significant synergies, and modest
(yet ahead of peers) organic growth, to deliver >20% earnings per share compound
annual growth rate through fiscal 2020.
After moving sideways for much of the past 18 months, sentiment has turned more
favourable of-late as management meetings appear to be giving investors comfort with
respect to Couche- Tard's long-term growth potential (regardless of the expectation that
fuel demand will start declining 1-2% annually beyond 2025). With a forward Price-
Earnings ratio of only 16x and >20% earnings per share compound annual growth rate
through F2020, we still see meaningful upside to the shares.
TRANSCANADA
TransCanada has extended its 8 - 10% compound annual growth rate dividend outlook by
one year through to 2021. The company has also reiterated its forecast that the dividend
compound annual growth rate will be at the upper end of the range through 2020. The
dividend is supported by earnings and cash flow growth, as well as strong coverage ratios.