Sir Robert Chote, Chair
Fry Building, 2 Marsham Street, London, SW1P 4DF
robert.chote@statistics.gov.uk
statisticsauthority.gov.uk
Sarah Olney MP
House of Commons
(via email)
24 May 2024
Dear Ms Olney,
Thank you for your letter regarding statements by the Chancellor about changes in the tax
burden. Specifically, you expressed concern that:
• During his budget speech on 6 March, the Chancellor said “Today, in contrast, a
Conservative Government brings down taxes”.
• On 7 March, during an interview with BBC Radio Scotland, the Chancellor said
Scotland “is the only part of the United Kingdom that is raising taxes”.
HM Treasury has informed us that the claims made in the budget speech were made in
relation to the Spring Budget document
1
that states, “Together, this Spring Budget and
Autumn Statement 2023 deliver a total tax cut of £20 billion for workers, the largest ever cut
to employee and self-employed National Insurance Contributions (NICs), as well as making
full expensing permanent – with the combined impact of government policy from Autumn
Statement 2022 reducing the tax burden by 0.6 percentage points”.
In the Spring Budget document, this paragraph is clearly sourced as the combined size of
Spring Budget 2023, Autumn Statement 2023, and Spring Budget 2024 tax measures in
2028/29 as a percentage of GDP, using data from the Office for Budget Responsibility
(OBR) policy measures database and the OBR public finances databank
2
, to combine the
effects from several policies at multiple fiscal events.
As you have pointed out, the OBR has also forecast that the cuts to national insurance rates
will be offset by other policy decisions such as freezing national insurance and income tax
thresholds. In my previous letter to you, dated 19 December 2023, I noted that intelligent
transparency demands that ministers consider how someone with an interest, but little
specialist knowledge, is likely to understand what they say. The average person would be
likely to interpret the Chancellors’ claim to “bring down taxes” as referring to the overall tax
burden.
Regarding the claims made by the Chancellor on BBC Radio Scotland, Scotland has
introduced a new ‘Advanced Rate’ leading to increased tax payments for individuals earning
over £75,000. However, the claim that Scotland is the only part of the United Kingdom
raising taxes lacks the context of threshold freezes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
1
Spring Budget 2024 Policy Paper
2
Office for Budget Responsibility Data – Policy measures database and public finances databank
HM Treasury officials were unable to provide us with a source for this claim about Scottish
taxes and did not clarify its intended meaning.
Demonstrating transparency and analytical integrity builds public confidence in how
analytical evidence is used across government. The Office for Statistics Regulation is
continuing to work with government departments, including HM Treasury, to embed the
principles of intelligent transparency as the default approach to communicating statistics and
data.
Yours sincerely,
Sir Robert Chote
Chair
