TERMINAL
AREA FORECAST
executive summary
FISCAL YEARS 2022–2050
i
Preface
This publication provides aviation data users with summary historical and forecast
statistics on passenger demand and aviation activity at U.S. airports. The summary
level forecasts are based on individual airport projections.
The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) includes forecasts for active airports in the National
Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). The Federal Aviation Administration’s
(FAA) Forecast and Performance Analysis Division, Office of Aviation Policy and Plans,
develops the TAF. The TAF is available on the Internet. The TAF database can be
accessed at:
https://taf.faa.gov
The TAF contains a query data application that allows the public to access and print
historical (1990 to 2021) and forecast (2022 to 2050) aviation activity data by individual
airport, state, or FAA region.
The FAA welcomes public comment on the forecasts, as well as suggestions for
improving the usefulness of the TAF.
Roger Schaufele, Jr.
Manager
Forecast and Performance Analysis Division
Office of Aviation Policy and Plans
ii
Acknowledgements
This document was prepared by the Forecast and Performance Analysis Division of the
FAA Office of Aviation Policy and Plans under the direction of Roger Schaufele,
Manager, and Michael Lukacs, Deputy Division Manager, Forecast and Performance
Analysis Division. The forecasts were prepared by Peter LeBoff, Li Ding, Mei Liu, Anna
Barlett, Samuel Pascoe, and Jared Teeter.
The software support was provided under contract by Volanno. We extend a special
thanks to Alice Dobrin, Ankush Karnick, and Giuliana Rizzo whose invaluable
programming support for the TAF software made accessing and analyzing this airport
data so much more efficient.
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Table of Contents
Preface ....................................................................................................................................... i
Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................ii
Table of Contents .....................................................................................................................iii
Summary Historical and Forecast Highlights .........................................................................4
Forecast Trends ........................................................................................................................6
Trends by Region ....................................................................................................................6
Tower Airports by Hub Size .....................................................................................................6
Large Hub Airports ..................................................................................................................7
Forecast Process ......................................................................................................................8
Introduction..............................................................................................................................8
Appendix A: Description of Activity Measures ......................................................................9
Air Carrier Enplanements ........................................................................................................9
Regional Enplanements ..........................................................................................................9
Aircraft Operations...................................................................................................................9
Local Operations .....................................................................................................................9
Itinerant Operations ...............................................................................................................10
Tracon Operations .................................................................................................................10
Overflights .............................................................................................................................10
Appendix B: List of Large, Medium, and Small Hub Tower Airports ...................................11
Table B-1 List of Large Hub Towers ......................................................................................11
Table B-2 List of Medium Hub Towers ...................................................................................12
Table B-3 List of Small Hub Towers ......................................................................................13
4
Summary Historical and Forecast Highlights
• Total passenger enplanements at U.S. airports, including FAA and Non-FAA
facilities
1
, are estimated to be 823 million enplanements in 2022, an estimated
annual increase of 50.6 percent. Total enplanements are forecast to recover in
aggregate to their 2019 pre-COVID-19 pandemic level by 2023.
• In 2022, FAA tower airports and FAA contract tower airports are estimated to
account for 817.8 million enplanements or 99.4 percent of total enplanements at
U.S. airports.
• The top 100 airports are estimated to account for 774 million enplanements in
2022, or 94 percent of total U.S. enplanements.
• FAA tower airports and FAA contract tower airports handled 52.6 million
operations in 2022. This figure is a 9.9 percent increase from 2021, following a 7
percent increase from 2020 to 2021. Total operations at these airports are
forecast to recover in aggregate to their 2019 level by 2023.
• In 2022 there were 37.7 million total TRACON operations. These operations
were a 12.4 percent increase from the 33.5 million operations in 2021. Total
TRACON operations are forecast to recover in aggregate to their 2019 level by
2024.
• The 30 large hub airports
2
enplaned an estimated 576.6 million passengers in
2022. These airports are projected to enplane 1.3 billion passengers in 2050, a
125 percent increase over the 29-year period (or 2.95 percent annually).
• The 34 medium hub airports
3
enplaned an estimated 145.4 million enplanements
in 2022. These airports are projected to enplane 306.4 million passengers in
2050, a 111 percent increase over the 29-year period (or 2.7 percent annually).
• Atlanta (44.5 million enplanements), Dallas/Ft. Worth (34.8 million), Denver (33.0
million), Chicago O’Hare (32.6 million), and Los Angeles (31.2 million) led U.S.
commercial airports in estimated passenger enplanements in 2022, accounting
for 21.4 percent of enplanements at U.S. airports.
1
FAA facilities are FAA Tower Airports and Contract Tower Airports.
2
Airports enplaning one percent or more of total enplanements.
3
Airports enplaning 0.25 to 0.99 percent of total enplanements.
5
• Atlanta is projected to remain the country’s busiest airport, as measured by
passenger enplanements, through the forecast period with a projected 95.3
million enplaned passengers in 2050. Los Angeles is projected to enplane the
second most passengers (78.5 million) in 2050, followed by Denver International
with 72.6 million enplanements.
• Enplanements at San Francisco, John F. Kennedy, and San Diego airports are
projected to grow fastest among the large hub airports. The annual growth rates
at these airports are forecast to increase by 4.3, 3.8, and 3.6 percent per year,
respectively, over the forecast period.
• In terms of total operations, Chicago O’Hare was the busiest U.S. airport in 2022
with 727,000 aircraft operations. Atlanta and Dallas/Ft. Worth were the second
and third busiest airports with 724,000 and 663,000 operations, respectively.
• In 2050, Atlanta is expected to be the busiest airport in the nation, as measured
by total operations, with a projected 1.44 million operations. Chicago O’Hare
(1.33 million operations) is projected to be in second place and Dallas/Ft. Worth
is projected to be in third place (with 1.19 million operations).
• The FAA’s Southern region airports are estimated to enplane more passengers
at tower airports than any other region with an estimated 206.5 million
passengers in 2022. The Western Pacific region was second with 162.1 million
enplanements.
• The Southern region is expected to lead in passenger enplanements at tower
airports in 2050, reaching 430.1 million. The Western Pacific region is projected
to stay in second place with 389.1 million enplanements.
• The Southern region led all FAA regions in the number of airport operations at
tower airports with 12.9 million in 2022. The Southern region is expected to
remain first in 2050 with 18.3 million operations. The Western Pacific and
Southwest regions ran second and third in airport operations in 2022 with 11.4
and 6.9 million, respectively. In 2050, the Western Pacific region is projected to
remain in second place with 16.7 million operations and the Southwest region is
projected to remain in third place with 8.4 million operations.
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Forecast Trends
Forecast trends are broken down by various groups. Forecast table S-1 summarizes the
forecast trends by region. Table S-2 summaries the forecasts by hub size. Table S-4
and S-4 list the forecasts by airport for the large hub and medium hub groups. Appendix
A provides an explanation of the activity data of the detailed elements in the TAF.
Appendix B provides a list of FAA tower airports and FAA contract tower airports by hub
size for the large, medium, and small hubs.
All forecast tables can be downloaded in Excel format on the following web page in the
TAF section:
https://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation/taf
Trends by Region
Table S-1 shows enplanements and airport operations at the tower airports by FAA
region. The Southern region led FAA regions in estimated passenger enplanements at
tower airports with 206.5 million in 2022, followed by the Western Pacific region with
162.1 million enplanements, and the Eastern region with 121.7 million enplanements.
Enplanements in the Western-Pacific region are projected to increase the fastest with
an average annual rate of 3.2 percent from 2022 to 2050. The next two regions with the
fastest projected increases in enplanements are Northwest Mountain and New England
with average annual forecast rates of 3.0 percent.
In 2022 the Southern (12.9 million operations), Western Pacific (11.4 million
operations), and Southwest (6.9 million operations) regions ranked as the top three FAA
regions in tower airport operations. The Alaskan (1.4 percent), Western-Pacific (1.4
percent), Northwest Mountain (1.3 percent), and New England (1.3 percent) regions are
projected to be the fastest growing FAA regions from 2022 to 2050 in terms of tower
airport operations.
Tower Airports by Hub Size
Table S-2 presents passenger enplanements and airport operations at FAA and FAA
contract towers by hub size. An airport qualifies as a large hub with one percent or more
of total U.S. passenger enplanements. A medium hub airport enplanes from 0.25 to
0.99 percent of total U.S. passenger enplanements while small and non-hub airports
enplane from 0.05 to 0.249 percent and less than 0.05 percent, respectively. Appendix
B contains a list of hub tower airports classified by size for the large, medium, and small
hubs.
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The 30 large hub airports enplaned 576.6 million passengers in 2022 while the 34
medium hub airports enplaned 145.4 million, and the 75 small hub airports enplaned
74.4 million. The 386 non-hub airports enplaned 21.4 million passengers. Enplanements
at large hubs are expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9 percent over the 2022 to
2050 forecast period. Medium hub airports are forecast to increase 2.7 percent and
small hub airports are forecast to increase 2.1 percent per year.
Operations at large hub airports totaled 11.8 million in 2022 compared to 5.4 million at
medium hub airports and 6.7 million at small hub airports. Operations at large hub
airports are forecast to increase at an annual rate of 2.2 percent from 2022 to 2050.
Operations at the medium hubs are forecast to rise at an annual rate of 1.8 percent from
2022 to 2050; operations at small hub airports are forecast to grow 0.9 percent per year.
In 2022 non-hub airports accounted for 28.8 million operations or 57.4 percent of total
operations at FAA and FAA contract towers. General aviation aircraft operations
accounted for the majority of operations at the non-hub airports.
Large Hub Airports
Table S-3 presents enplanement forecast summaries for the large hub airports. Atlanta
was the busiest airport in 2022 (44.5 million estimated enplanements), followed by
Dallas/Ft. Worth (34.8 million), Denver (33.0 million), Chicago O’Hare (32.6 million), and
Los Angeles (31.2 million). The ranking of the top five airports in terms of projected
enplanements in 2050 is Atlanta (95.3 million), Los Angeles (78.5 million), Denver (72.6
million), Chicago O’Hare (71.9 million), John F. Kennedy (69.8 million), and Dallas-Fort
Worth (69.7 million). The three airports with the fastest projected increases in
enplanements from 2022 to 2050 are San Francisco (4.3 percent), John F. Kennedy
(3.8 percent), and San Diego (3.6 percent).
Table S-4 presents operations forecast summaries for the large hub airports. In 2022,
FAA controllers at Chicago O’Hare handled 727,000 landings and takeoffs, followed by
Atlanta (724,2000 operations), Dallas/Ft. Worth (663,4000 operations), and Denver
(613,700 operations). The ranking of the top four airports in terms of projected
operations in 2050 is Atlanta (1.4 million), Chicago O’Hare (1.3 million), Dallas/Ft. Worth
(1.2 million), and Los Angeles (1.2 million). The three airports with the fastest projected
increases in operations from 2022 to 2050 are San Francisco (3.3 percent), San Diego
(3.3 percent), and Boston (2.9 percent).
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Forecast Process
Introduction
The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) contains historical and forecast data for
enplanements, airport operations, TRACON operations, and based aircraft. The data
cover 264 FAA tower airports, 260 FAA contract tower airports, 153 terminal radar
approach control facilities, and over 2,000 non-FAA airports. Data in the TAF are
presented on a U.S. Government fiscal year basis (October through September).
The TAF is prepared to assist the FAA in meeting its planning, budgeting, and staffing
requirements. In addition, state aviation authorities and other aviation planners use the
TAF as a basis for planning airport improvements.
The forecast process document, which provides an overview on the forecast
methodology and the impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on TAF forecasts, can be
downloaded through the TAF online website: https://taf.faa.gov
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Appendix A: Description of Activity Measures
Air Carrier Enplanements
These data summarize domestic enplaned passengers (originations and connections) of U.S.
commercial air carriers and international enplanements for both U.S. and foreign flag carriers
submitted to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), Bureau of Transportation Statistics
(BTS) on T-100 reports. Estimates include both scheduled and non-scheduled enplaned
passengers.
Regional Enplanements
Starting in FY 2003, FAA includes in the regional category enplanements for those airlines
whose primary function is to provide passenger feed to mainline carriers, regardless of aircraft
size. As of October 2002, all scheduled and non-scheduled operations using aircraft with 10 or
more seats to transport regional passengers must report on T-100.
Historic enplanement data includes originating passengers on scheduled commuter or regional
carriers as reported on DOT Form 41 and 298-C; where possible, adjustments were made to
include connecting passengers. Historically, Form 298-C included carriers operating at least five
scheduled round trips per week whose entire fleet consists of aircraft having 60 seats or less.
Aircraft Operations
FAA air traffic controllers count landings and takeoffs at FAA towered airports. Controllers
employed by an FAA contractor count operations at FAA contract towers. At non-FAA facilities,
operations counts represent an estimate.
Air carrier operations represent either takeoffs or landings of commercial aircraft with seating
capacity of more than 60 seats.
Commuter/air taxi operations are one category. Commuter operations include takeoffs and
landings by aircraft with 60 or fewer seats that transport regional passengers on scheduled
commercial flights. Air taxi operations include takeoffs and landings by aircraft with 60 or fewer
seats conducted on non-scheduled or for-hire flights.
Itinerant general aviation and local civil operations represent all civil aviation aircraft takeoffs
and landings not classified as commercial. Military operations represent takeoffs and landings
by military aircraft. Operations are either itinerant or local flights.
Local Operations
Aircraft operating in the traffic pattern or within sight of the tower, or aircraft known to be
departing or arriving from flight in local practice areas, or aircraft executing practice instrument
approaches at the airport.
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Itinerant Operations
FAA reports all aircraft operations other than local operations as itinerant. Essentially, these
data represent takeoffs and landings of aircraft going from one airport to another.
Tracon Operations
These data include arrivals, departures, and overflights conducted by an FAA radar approach
control facility for aircraft under Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) or Visual Flight Rule (VFR) plans.
Overflights
These data include operations of aircraft in transit through the approach control facility airspace.
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Appendix B: List of Large, Medium, and Small Hub Tower
Airports
Table B-1 List of Large Hub Towers
Location
Identifier
Region Airport Name
City, State
ATL ASO HARTSFIELD-JACKSON ATLANTA INT`L ATLANTA, GA
AUS ASW AUSTIN TOWER AUSTIN, TX
BNA ASO NASHVILLE INTERNATIONAL NASHVILLE, TN
BOS ANE BOSTON/LOGAN INTERNATIONAL BOSTON, MA
BWI AEA BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INT`L BALTIMORE, MD
CLT ASO CHARLOTTE/DOUGLAS INT`L CHARLOTTE, NC
DCA AEA WASHINGTON NATIONAL WASHINGTON, DC
DEN ANM DENVER INTERNATIONAL DENVER, CO
DFW ASW DALLAS/FT WORTH INT`L DALLAS-FORT WORTH, TX
DTW AGL DETROIT METRO WAYNE CO DETROIT, MI
EWR AEA NEWARK TOWER NEWARK, NJ
FLL ASO FT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD FORT LAUDERDALE, FL
IAD AEA WASHINGTON DULLES INT`L WASHINGTON, DC
IAH ASW HOUSTON/G BUSH INTERCONT`L HOUSTON, TX
JFK AEA KENNEDY TOWER NEW YORK, NY
LAS AWP LAS VEGAS/MC CARRAN INT`L LAS VEGAS, NV
LAX AWP LOS ANGELES INTERNATIONAL LOS ANGELES, CA
LGA AEA LA GUARDIA NEW YORK, NY
MCO ASO ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL ORLANDO, FL
MDW AGL CHICAGO MIDWAY CHICAGO, IL
MIA ASO MIAMI INTE RNA TIONAL MIAMI, F L
MSP AGL MINNEAPOLIS-ST PAUL INT`L MINNEAPOLIS, MN
ORD AGL CHICAGO/O`HARE INT`L CHICAGO, IL
PHL AEA PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL PHILADELPHIA, PA
PHX AWP PHOENIX SKY HARBOR INTL PHOENIX, AZ
SAN AWP SAN DIEGO INT`L/LINDBERGH SAN DIEGO, CA
SEA ANM SEATTLE TACOMA INT`L SEATTLE, WA
SFO AWP SAN FRANCISCO INT`L SAN FRANCISCO, CA
SLC ANM SALT LAKE CITY INT`L SALT LAKE CITY, UT
TPA ASO TAMPA INTERNATIONAL TAMPA, FL
Listed 30 Airports
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Table B-2 List of Medium Hub Towers
Location
Identifier
Region Airport Name City, State
ABQ ASW ALBUQUERQUE INTERNATIONAL ALBUQUERQUE, NM
ANC AAL ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL ANCHORAGE, AK
BDL ANE WINDSOR LOCKS/BRADLEY INTL WINDSOR LOCKS, CT
BOI ANM BOISE AIR TERMINAL BOISE, ID
BUR AWP BURBANK-GLENDALE-PASADENA BURBANK, CA
CHS ASO CHARLESTON AFB/INT`L CHARLESTON, SC
CLE AGL CLEVELAND HOPKINS INT`L CLEVELAND, OH
CMH AGL PORT COLUMBUS INT`L COLUMBUS, OH
CVG ASO COVINGTON/CINCINNATI INT`L COVINGTON, KY
DAL ASW DALLAS LOVE FIELD DALLAS, TX
HNL AWP HONOLULU INTERNATIONAL HONOLULU, HI
HOU ASW HOUSTON HOBBY HOUSTON, TX
IND AGL INDIANAPOLIS INTERNATIONAL IND IA NA P OLIS , IN
JAX ASO JACKSONVILLE INT`L JACKSONVILLE, FL
MCI ACE KANSAS CITY INTERNATIONAL KANSAS CITY, MO
MEM ASO MEMPHIS TOWER MEMPHIS, TN
MKE AGL MILWAUKEE/GEN MITCHELL INT MILWAUKEE, WI
MSY ASW NEW ORLEANS INT`L/MOISANT NEW ORLEANS, LA
OAK AWP OAKLAND TOWER OAKLAND, CA
OGG AWP MAUI/KAHULUI KAHULUI, HI
OMA ACE OMAHA OMAHA, NE
ONT AWP ONTARIO INTERNATIONAL ONTARIO, CA
PBI ASO PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL WEST PALM BEACH, FL
PDX ANM PORTLAND INTERNATIONAL PORTLAND, OR
PIT AEA PITTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL PITTSBURGH, PA
RDU ASO RALEIGH-DURHAM INT`L RALEIGH/DURHAM, NC
RNO AWP RENO/TAHOE INTERNATIONAL RENO, NV
RSW ASO FT MYERS/SW FL INT`L FORT MYERS, FL
SAT ASW SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL SAN ANTONIO, TX
SJC AWP SAN JOSE TOWER SAN JOSE, CA
SJU ASO SAN JUAN INTERNATIONAL SAN JUAN, PR
SMF AWP SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL SACRAMENTO, CA
SNA AWP SANTA ANA/JOHN WAYNE SANTA ANA, CA
STL ACE LAMBERT-ST LOUIS INT`L ST LOUIS, MO
Listed 34 Airports
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Table B-3 List of Small Hub Towers
Continued on next page
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Location
Identifier